20:52
Muhammad Aslam
NEW ORLEANS -- Five reasons the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1) will beat the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1) on Thursday in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans.
1. Is this a real Alabama defense? What's the standard for defense at Alabama? Since Nick Saban got the Tide rolling in his second year in 2008, Alabama has ranked seventh, second, third, first, first, fourth and now, this season, third in the nation in points allowed.
"The standard for us is to force turnovers, stop the run and not give up big plays," Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart said. "We haven't always done that. We want to hold teams to 13 points or less, which is a really tough goal in this day and age of college football. With the numbers going up, we never changed what our standard is. We hold every defense to the same standard we held the best defense to."
And Alabama has often had the best defense. That's a high bar in an age of offensive explosions.
• 5 reasons Ohio State will win
"That doesn't mean we change," Smart said. "You've got to leave your goals where they are, or you're sacrificing things we don't think you should sacrifice."
This season was seen as a step back for Bama's defensive ways. Alabama shut out Florida Atlantic and Texas A&M, and held Southern Miss, Arkansas, LSU, West Carolina and Missouri to under 20 points. Overall, Alabama allowed 16.6 points per game, compared to 21.2 points for Ohio State's defense.
This game hinges on the Alabama defense. If it plays like one of the best Alabama defenses, the Tide may roll. If not, the Buckeyes' offense, averaging 45.2 points per game and ranked fifth in the country, could take over.
The biggest questions for Alabama arise from what happened in its 55-44 win over Auburn a month ago, the offense most like what the Buckeyes do. Quarterback Nick Marshall threw for more than 400 yards and beat the Tide deep more than once, while also keeping plays alive with his feet.
"I think it woke our kids up," Smart said. "They realize they got exposed."
If Alabama plays like that, the Buckeyes may go crazy. If Alabama plays like an Alabama defense, Alabama should win.2. Up tempo helps both sides: In years past, Saban complained about up-tempo offenses. And going fast wasn't part of the Alabama package.
If that was still the case this year, Ohio State's no-huddle, often up-tempo attack could have been a huge problem for the Tide. And it still may be.
But they are used to it now, because first-year offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin uses a "fastball" package that works well for quarterback Blake Sims and also gives the Alabama defense a regular look against first-string offensive talent moving quickly in practice.
Kiffin said he gets the credit for the faster look, but really it was Saban who wanted to push the pace when he was interviewing for a new coordinator.
"He kept saying, 'I want to play faster, I want to give defenses more issues,'' Kiffin said. "He has seen the issues it has caused him on defense. That's a total credit to him for adjusting."
So now Alabama will go first-team offense vs. first-team defense in practice and run eight straight plays with only five seconds between them, or run four straight quick ones to simulate a series.
"If you don't go fast on offense, the only way to simulate it for your defense is the scout team," Kiffin said. "But we'll go against them as fast as we can with different stuff, so they have to adjust vs. good players and vs. speed, which they say helps."
Smart said Alabama always had some up-tempo looks to help the defense in practice, the offense just never used it in games. But there was a difference this year. And that helped Smart emphasize to his players they have to get lined up quickly.
"Not all defensive players have a sense of urgency to them," Smart said. "You've got to get back quick and you've got to emphasize that. If you get lined up, you've got a fighting chance. Ohio State, we have no question they are going to go up-tempo. Every team has done it. It has been our Achilles heel, our kryptonite. But we have tried to answer that by practicing it more."
Expect Sims and the Alabama offense to hit Ohio State with some fastball offense. And expect the Crimson Tide defense to be more prepared for an attack like Ohio State's than it used to be.
3. The big guys on the D line: One specific aspect of the Alabama defense to watch is the rotation on the defensive line. Several Buckeyes said what stood out most was the Crimson Tide's size and depth up front. That could be an issue for running back Ezekiel Elliott and an OSU offensive line that has been playing well.
"They are big up front, I mean really big," OSU offensive coordinator Tom Herman said. "And they don't just have one group of them. They play nine or 10 defensive linemen. That stood out to me, not only the size of them, but they fact they had backups that were just as big and as good, and backups to the backups that were just as good and as big."
Smart said size doesn't do any good when offenses attack with perimeter runs and bubble screens, which is exactly what Ohio State could do. The Buckeyes may really work the jet sweep with Jalin Marshall and maybe Dontre Wilson. But the Tide big guys are pretty athletic, too.
"What does that big behemoth matter? That's the tough thing," Smart said. "You've got to be able to run. I wouldn't trade our guys for anybody in the country, but they've got to play well, they've to be in shape and we've got to play a lot of them."
It's good they have a lot of them, beginning with starters Jonathan Allen (6-foot-3, 272 pounds), A'Shawn Robinson (6-4, 320) and Jarran Reed (6-4, 315).
How did the Tide get so many of them?
Said Smart: "You recruit. You recruit hard. And you keep recruiting."
4. T.J. Yeldon and run game helped by balance: Saban said Wednesday that his junior running back, who averaged 5.1 yards per carry and 78 yards per game this season, will be game-time decision with an ankle injury. But Yeldon expects to play, and figure that he's right.
With Yeldon, sophomore Derrick Henry (5.6 yards per carry and 69 yards per game) and freshman Tyren Jones (6.2 yards per carry in a limited role) the Tide expects to run on Ohio State, even though the Buckeyes stuffed Wisconsin and Melvin Gordon, the nation's best back, in the Big Ten Championship.
"Melvin Gordon is a great back, but he didn't really have too much help outside," Yeldon said, before ticking off the list of Alabama receiving talent that starts with Amari Cooper, the best pass catcher in the country. "They can't just pack the box with us, because they have to worry about the guys outside.
"If a team is one dimensional, anybody can stop them just by stacking the box."
Yeldon, a 6-foot-2, 221-pounder with speed and vision, is a dangerous cutback runner, so if the Buckeyes have to protect against the pass game, he could make individual defenders in pursuit pay the price. And while the Buckeyes faced great backs like Gordon and Indiana's Tevin Coleman this year, those teams had virtually no quarterback threat. Alabama's Blake Sims is sixth in the nation in passer rating, and Yeldon said Kiffin as the offensive coordinator is great at bouncing between run, pass and play-action pass calls.
5. An edge in the punt game: For the first time this season, Ohio State may not have the better punter. And for two coaches who pound home the importance of special teams, a final swing based on field position or a big play in the return game wouldn't be a shock.
Alabama averages 47 yards per punt, which ranks second in the nation. Ohio State averages 45.1 yards, which ranks sixth.
Crimson Tide freshman JK Scott has pinned opponents inside the 20-yardline 54 percent of the time, on 26 of 48 punts, while Johnston has done it 22 times in 39 punts, or 56 percent of the time.
"A punter can influence a game tremendously," Scott said. "Just one punt inside the 5-yardline can change the momentum completely. If you can control field position, you can give your team an advantage."
The Buckeyes know that. They have the best field position differential in the nation, maybe the key stat of their season. But Scott and the Bama special teams should negate that.
Johnston has been a force for the Buckeyes and was a semifinalist for the Ray Guy Award as the nation's best punter.
"I've seen some film on him," Scott said. "He's a good punter. He can hit them."
But Scott was on of three Guy finalists.
"I feel like I've done my job to the best of my ability," Scott said. "(Saban) does appreciate a good punter who can flip the field."
He helped change Alabama's 25-20 win over Mississippi State on Nov. 15, when he pinned a punt inside the 5 and the Crimson Tide got a safety on the next play for the first points of the game.
One more edge for Alabama. Johnston is from Australia, while Scott, a Denver native, said his maternal grandparents, Bob and Deb Shuler, live in the Cleveland area.
"So shoutout to my grandparents," Scott said.
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